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Alerts!!
Emailed to subscribers on Nov 12, 2009:
Our research indicates that all
the following mutual fund categories should be considered
BUYs:
Large Growth*
Large Blend*
Large Value*
Midcap Growth*
Midcap Blend
Midcap Value
Small Growth
Small Blend
Small Value
Diversified International Stock*
Note: An * indicates our favorite current categories based on our data.
Posted Oct. 8, 2009: We are issuing a BUY signal for the Large Cap Growth category.
(Up to now, it has been just a strong HOLD.)
Posted Jan. 31, 2009: See our
Feb '09 newsletter for our latest Alert regarding a BUY signal for the Small Cap Growth category. Additionally,
all other major categories are now classified as HOLDs.
Reality Check (as of mid-Nov, 2009): These calls proved highly successful; the
typical Small Growth fund is up over 30% since the beginning of the year; the other majority categories are up at least 24%.
As of Jan. 18, 2008 we believe that that virtually all 9 major categories of US
stocks funds, with the possible exception of Large Growth, are unattractive based on the valuation
data we monitor. We will continue to update you on this alert; however, once a category becomes unattractive
from the standpoint of new purchases, although not necessarily if you are a long-term holder, it
usually will not be considered by us to be attractive again for at least 6 months.
Reality Check (as of Mar. 27, 2009): Our early warning of poor returns
proved to be highly accurate. Over the period, Large Growth funds, while down significantly, have been a somewhat
better performing category than the other 8 major fund categories.
As of July 2007, we stated that we believed that "high yield" (also called junk) bonds
were entering into an extended period where returns will be minimal, or
worse, even leading to outright losses. Investors who want to avoid possible
poor returns ahead might want to sell or reduce any current holdings. Our
most recent Newsletters provide better alternative bond choices.
Reality Check (as of Mar. 27, 2009): Over the last 21 mos.,
high yield funds have had extremely negative returns in the range of
-30 to -40%! In contrast, most
high quality bond funds have done reasonably well.
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