Mutual Funds Research Newsletter
Copyright 2008 Tom Madell, PhD, Publisher
Aug 3, 2008

Buy, Sell, or Hold? What Our Research on Performance Shows

We have assembled large amounts of research data on mutual fund performance. This data should prove useful in yielding insights on questions of crucial importance regarding how we manage our own portfolio of fund investments; once understood, we hope to be able to convey these insights to our readers as well.

In particular, we are trying to determine whether we can ascertain a straightforward set of rules to help investors make good buy, hold, and sell decisions based on our data which covers performance results going back to early 1995. Prior to then, it becomes somewhat difficult to find all the relevant data.

We have already presented some of our initial findings in our July '08 newsletter. (Click here to read the article and for information on how we set out to define a classification system which could be regularly applied to each of the major fund categories to determine whether that category was currently a BUY, SELL, or HOLD.)

We now can present data that seems to clearly show the merits of using this classification system in helping to make each of these 3 crucial portfolio decisions. In particular, we can now document that using such a system would have resulted in improved overall portfolio results as compared to less systematic approaches, or merely just buying and holding. The results were particularly dramatic over the last 8 1/2 years.


First we show performance outcomes for stock fund categories classified as BUY, SELL, or HOLD for the period between Jan. 2000 and July 2007. The ensuing performance for funds so categorized was examined through the close of June, 2008. (In our July newsletter, our data presented a less exact analysis of the Jan. 2000 through July 2005 period.)

The table, and the two that follow, shows what the average return would have been for many of the major fund categories (such as Large Growth, Small Blend, International, etc.) that we classified using the rating system we developed; the figures thus show what the typical return would have been 1, 3, and 5 years later, assuming one had bought, sold, or held a fund in that category at the time the signal was first generated. (The 3 and 5 year returns are annualized, that is, they are average per year returns.)

The returns shown for funds categorized as SELL are the returns the investor would have received had he/she continued to own the fund without selling. Returns highlighted in red indicate performance that we consider deficient and therefore problematic for investors.

Recent Data for Fund Categories Classified as BUY, SELL, or HOLD
  1 Yr Return 3 Yr Return 5 Yr Return
BUY 11.9% 11.9% 15.0%
SELL - 11.2   - 4.3   2.8  
HOLD 10.7 12.0 12.2

    Note: Three and 5 yr returns beginning July 2005 and
July 2003 respectively.

The next table shows data for classifications BUY, SELL, or HOLD made for the period between Apr. 1995 and Oct 1999. The ensuing performance for funds so categorized were examined through the close of Sept, 2004, that is, up to 5 years after.

Earlier Data for Fund Categories Classified as BUY, SELL, or HOLD
  1 Yr Return 3 Yr Return 5 Yr Return
SELL 23.9 8.2 5.0
HOLD 22.5 14.5 9.0

Note: There were no BUY classifications made during this period.

The last table shows the results for all BUY, SELL, and HOLD classifications made using the combined data over the entire period studied, namely between Apr. 1995 and July 2007 with performance results through the close of June, 2008. That is, it incorporates all data together from both the first two tables.

Combined Data for Fund Categories Classified as BUY, SELL, or HOLD
  1 Yr Return 3 Yr Return 5 Yr Return
BUY 11.9 11.9 15.0
SELL 6.6 2.2 4.0
HOLD 13.1 12.7 11.1

Note: No BUY classifications were made prior to Apr. 2003.

The Important Implications for Investors

It is important to consider these results carefully as they give important support for the validity of each of the BUY, SELL, and HOLD classifications of stock fund categories that we empirically created.

Had there been no discernible patterns in prior stock category performance, it would have likely been extremely difficult, if not impossible, to create a rating system that would work effectively for a period as long as 8 1/2 years, the initial study period of used in setting up the criteria for our classifications. However, rather than using a rating system based totally on the observable results over the 8 1/2 years, we relied heavily on our previous research which indicated that fund categories that appear overvalued and/or showing negative but sustained recent performance, consistently were less likely to do well in upcoming years as compared to funds showing the opposite characteristics.

In applying our classifications to the earlier 4 1/2 year period between 1995 and 1999 and examining the results, we were able to substantially confirm the usefulness of our ratings using independent data.

In particular, our results suggest the following:

What Does Our Category Classification Recommend Investors Do Now?

At the present time, unfortunately, all the major fund categories would be classified as SELL, and the majority of them have correctly (thus far, showing double-digit negative performance) been SELLS since last Oct. This appears similar to the first two quarters of 2000 when nearly all categories were also SELL. (The performance results after those signals were indeed poor with just a few exceptions.)

However, it does appear that if Large Cap funds (Growth, Blend, and Value) drop approximately 5% to 7.5% below their current levels, they will be reclassified as HOLDS. This could easily occur within the next several months, so it might not make sense to SELL from these holdings at this point. (Our Model Portfolio is about 90% invested in Large Cap funds.)

If the bear market continues to grind on, as we currently expect, some outright BUY opportunities should indeed eventually appear, as first happened at the end of the 2000-2002 bear market. At that time, our system would have identified both International stock funds and Large Growth funds as places to be.

Incidentally, you might wonder if I will publish the criteria I use to determine my BUY, SELL, or HOLD classifications. I offer some suggestions as to how I do this in my July '08 newsletter. I don't plan to publish them in their entirety in the foreseeable future because they may change after further analysis. However, I do plan to use them as the basis for my quarterly Model Portfolio selections going forward. Thus, you can allow yourself to achieve the benefit of their usefulness without having to do any work yourself! Just continue to read our new Newsletters!

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